NBA: WARR Media's Mid-Season, Trade Deadline Survey
Will the Bulls stay atop the East entering the playoffs? Who's made hardship look easy? What trades will truly alter the Association's competitive balance?
Our panel: WARR writers Joshua M. Hicks and Drew Stevens, Runnin With WARR contributor Chris Pennant, WARR Media co-founder Sean Terry and WARR Media editorial director Kyle Means.
1. January was rough for the Bulls - but in spite of recent struggles and extended injury issues, the ship has stayed steady for the most part - what spot are you most safe predicting the Bulls to fall in the East entering the playoffs?
Drew Stevens: I don’t see the Bulls falling any lower than the fourth spot in the East.
Joshua Hicks: I still think the Bulls will finish top four in the East, a complete collapse would be needed to finish worse. They may drop to the fourth spot, maybe the fifth spot at worst, but they won't be in the play-in tournament.
Kyle Means: If I had to settle on a specific spot, I’d go with No. 2. Any of the East’s top four (Miami, Philadelphia and Milwaukee along with the Bulls) could be holding the top spot at the end of the regular season.
The top four group will not be infiltrated, except for maybe the Nets, but I don’t see them sitting any better than No. 3 entering the playoffs. I think the Bulls will galvanize themselves with a deadline trade and they’ll finally be let off the hook injury-wise in the final stretch of the season.
Chris Pennant: The Bulls are bound for the most even first round series in either the No. 4 or 5 spot. Twelve of the 15 Eastern Conference teams are either above .500 or within a few games of break-even, the Bulls fortunately were able to go 4-2 in their final six January games, which were all against teams under .500, but competition will ramp up before the All-Star Break and should continue past it, leaving little room for error.
Sean Terry: Thanks to their fast start, the Bulls should be good for around a 48 win total and a top 6 seed in the East.
Prior to the recent injury stretch, I had them staying the course to finish 52-30 (50 wins are still a good possibility) and a top 4 spot, but I expect another down period prior to the team getting Anthony Caruso and Lonzo Ball back in the fold, that and the time needed to get those two back at full strength in the rotation could likely mean the difference between a home court advantage in the first round or not.
2. Ten-day hardship contracts are continuing at least through Feb. 17 - what has been your favorite hardship signing this season?
JH: Alfonzo McKinnie and Malcolm Hill. AKME seems to know how to find the right talent that fits the Bulls system on both ends of the floor. The fact that McKinnie and Hill have shown up in the most crucial moments of games as well as both of them having Illinois/Chicago connections is impressive and a heck of a story to witness.
KM: Out of necessity, the Bulls have been active with hardships and altogether successful, but I’ma go with a guy the Bulls didn’t want to keep - Stanley Johnson. In a downer of a year for the Lakers, he’s been their most pleasant surprise and he’s spending at least another year in Tinseltown, unless LeBron wants to trade him at the deadline.
ST: Definitely gotta go with Lance Stephenson. Buddy made a quick pit-stop in the A, hopefully long enough to grab some “Lemon Pepper Lou” wings from the local staple - but I digress.
Mr. Born Ready has blended (back) in so seamlessly in Indiana it makes you wonder why he and the Pacers have done the break up to make up dance a few times over. Perhaps the third time will truly be the charm.
DS: With all due respect to Alfonzo McKinnie and Malcolm Hill, my favorite hardship signing has been Lance Stephenson. Simply put, his showmanship is fun to watch.
3. The hardship signings will continue at least a week past the trade deadline - should the Bulls continue to fish in the 10 day pool or dive in the big trade pool?
CP: I believe they need to look for a trade, but they're so thin through their roster, it's hard to say who they'd be able to fetch. Early on, I would have looked at trading a nice piece and some draft picks for Karl-Anthony Towns or another big-time expiring contract, but who would teams be willing to take now?
ST: Speaking of the “reunited and feels so good” vibes, now that the Bulls point of attack defense is without its two top catalysts they could do a lot worse than taking a crap-shoot on a retread with Kris Dunn (NBA steals percentage leader a mere two years ago).
Bulls pushed all the chips in on a playoff run this year and they can't let a few bumps and bruises along the way derail them from that goal.
DS: As Ball and LaVine’s injuries have shown, nothing is promised. When healthy, the Bulls are a legitimate contender. If Patrick Williams can fetch a player in a trade who already resembles the weapon most only hope Williams can become, they’ll be taken even more seriously. Artūras Karnišovas and Marc Eversley made sweeping changes in the name of “winning now.” They shouldn’t take their feet off the gas now.
JH: I think they should dive into the 10-day pool, and with the expectation that everyone will be healthy in time for the playoffs, use the extra spots to be players in the buyout market, hopefully for a backup big man. If a trade has to be made, AKME should find a way to get Robert Covington to come home.
4. Name one trade that you have to see the trigger pulled on prior to the deadline?
KM: I’d like to see Covington in Chicago, his immediate defensive skill and flexibility across the 3 and 4 positions could help keep the Bulls right on track for a top 2 seed in the playoffs.
JH: Jerami Grant, Harrison Barnes or Buddy Hield (or all three) being traded to playoff contenders. I don't know exactly what teams could pull off the trade, but putting each of these talents on playoff teams would make the playoffs that much more interesting.
DS: I think we can all agree that the Ben Simmons saga has gone on long enough.
ST: Any deal that involves Ben Simmons. MVP Embiid has carried the load in Philly quite admirably but Simmons is still a young star in this league despite his offensive shortcomings. Both sides of a Simmons trade — and more importantly fans throughout the NBA — are better off with Simmons in uniform doing his thing.
5. Name a bottom 6 playoff team currently who you expect to move into the top 4 of the East or West by the end of the regular season? Or name a top 4 team who'll slide back?
DS: With as tight as things are atop the Eastern Conference, I can see the Nets losing ground while Kevin Durant is sidelined with an MCL sprain.
CP: The Bulls are the only team with a real chance of backsliding, if injuries aren't taken into account. Brooklyn should be fine holding the fort without KD (ed. note - this was written before the current Nets losing streak), Milwaukee is getting going, and Miami doesn't have any long-term concerns.
ST: Partially addressed above. Given the recent slippage thanks to injury, I'm hard pressed to see Bulls remain in the top 4 (too obvious).
On the flip side of the injury-laden equation, there's some optimism in Denver that both Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. could see a return to the court soon. Those two along with recently signed Boogie Cousins may be reinforcement enough to pair with the reigning MVP for a second half push and leap-frog in the West.
JH: Depending on what happens in Philly, and if the Nets can get Kyrie back full-time, I can potentially see the Cavs moving up to maybe the fourth spot in the East. Outside of that, I don't see much movement in either conference.
6. For those already on the record with your Eastern and Western conference champions and titlists: care to adjust your picks?
(ed. note - Sean, who wasn’t in the first survey, is predicting Phoenix and Brooklyn for the Finals)
JH: I think it will be the Warriors against either the Nets or the Heat with the Warriors winning the chip.
DS: I may regret this later, but I’ll stick to my guns. Brooklyn and Utah will represent their respective conferences in the Finals with the Nets taking it all.
KM: Like Drew, I’m sticking to my guns, but I feel much better about my ballsy choice to stick to chalk and see the Bucks and the Suns in a Finals re-match.
And while last year I was completely pro-Bucks, if you think I’ma root for a championship for any team with Grayson Allen on it, SOMEBODY DONE TOLD YOU WRONG © Martin Payne.
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