Chicago Sports Exchange, Baseball Edition: Expectations Begin To Form As Teams Return to Arizona
Not all of the Chicago Cubs’ band is back together entering the 2021 season, but those who remain could possibly string together the right notes to make up an intriguing swan song for an unprecedented era on the North Side.
As far as most fans are concerned, the grooviness of the tune doesn’t matter as whether or not theirs a ring to it, something in the key of 2016.
That may be too much to ask of Cubs who are beginning to settle in Mesa for the next several weeks but at least Kris Bryant, Javy Baez, Anthony Rizzo and the rest are familiar with the refrains of doubt prior to a season of opportunity. There’s not much of anything that’s gonna phase the Cubs clubhouse in February.
Meanwhile, not everyone’s drinking the Kool-Aid of their crosstown rivals, for whom playing late into October is pretty much going to be the only measuring stick of a successful 2021 season.
BUY - White Sox Have Benefit Of Disregarding Analytic Projections
Clearly, the good people at Baseball Prospectus are a hard bunch to impress.
A quick once-over of their annual Player Empirical Comparison Optimization Test Algorithm—or, for those of us who prefer the generic version, PECOTA—projections for the White Sox suggests as much.
Neither the addition of two Cy Young Award finalists nor a vaunted lineup with more than enough pop to keep opposing bullpens busy moved the needle. Even as many fans anticipate the Sox taking another step forward this season, the mad (analytics) scientists have again pegged them to finish third in the American League Central and given them a 13% chance of winning the division they came within a game of clinching last season.
Quite a stark contrast in the “World Series or bust” expectations hitting coach Frank Menechino laid bare in December and ace Lucas Giolito doubled down on Tuesday ahead of spring training.
What are the PECOTA projections for the Cubs & White Sox in 2021? (WGN)
"We're at the point now where the word rebuild is completely out of the vocabulary," said Giolito, who, in his postseason debut, gave up just two hits with eight strikeouts and led the South Siders to their first playoff victory in 12 years in last season’s Wild Card Series against Oakland.
“We're a very, very good team, and we expect to win.”
And why wouldn’t they?
The Sox addressed their most pressing needs this off-season—some in more convincing fashion than others—and look to be on par with the class of the AL because of it.
But just like titles aren’t won on paper, neither are preseason prognostications the final word on what’s to come.
HOLD - Cubs Lacking Urgency Yet Still Dealing In Short Term
All good things must come to an end.
For the Cubs, that adage looks to be more clearly written on the wall than at any point since Theo Epstein left town with his blueprint for curse reversals in November.
Even as former ace Jake Arrieta officially returned to the fold Wednesday—along with Pedro Strop, who will be looking to outperform his minor-league deal with the club—and both Willson Contreras and Kris Bryant continue to survive trade rumors, they’ll likely be few on-field connections to that trio’s 2016 World Series team this time next year.
Arrieta signed a one-year deal with a mutual option for 2022. Bryant, Anthony Rizzo and Javier Baez will be free agents after this season. Contreras has two years left on his deal before he’s eligible to leave.
The only star player under contract longer from the team that quenched the longest drought in all major North American sports is Kyle Hendricks.
It’s no secret that this year is more of a bridge to get to the next side of championship contention. But even with this off-season’s garage sale, a second-straight National League Central title and a sixth postseason appearance in seven seasons is not out of the question.
All the more reason to take this year for all its worth.
Drew Stevens is a Senior Writer for WARR Media, he lives and works in Chicago