The sixth-seeded Chicago Bulls are set to square off with the defending champion Milwaukee Bucks in the Eastern Conference first round, a match that is seeing a role reversal of sorts from its most immediate predecessor — the 2015 first round clash that saw the Bulls win the series’ first three games, clinching in a Game 6 that arguably stands as the worst Bucks playoff loss ever.
Both teams have gone through multiple renditions in the seven seasons since then, and the stage is now set for the next chapter of the I-94 Rivalry.
Season Overview
Bucks: 3rd seed · 51-31 · Ortg: 114.3 (3rd) · Drtg: 111.1 (14th) · Net: +3.2 (8th)
Bulls: 6th seed · 46-36 · Ortg: 112.7 (13th) · Drtg: 113.2 (23rd) · Net: -0.5 (20th)
The season series saw a 4-0 sweep from the Bucks, with two relatively close games and another two that Milwaukee won handily. Plenty “game within the game” happenings occurred over the four games, from the much maligned Grayson Allen foul that sidelined Alex Caruso with a fractured wrist, to former Bull Bobby Portis being teched for taunting the Chicago bench.
Familiarity breeds contempt, yet the Bulls-Bucks series doesn’t ring out as the one of the NBA’s most heated rivalries. Not yet at least. Familiarity can also breed competition, and though the defending World Champions are the least sought-after first round opponent for the Bulls, if this proverb holds to be true at all then Milwaukee may be the opponent the Bulls need the most.
Let’s dive into the Bulls and their chances here, starting with a look into strengths and weaknesses of the Bucks, per Cleaning the Glass.
Strengths:
Rim Protection
Milwaukee is 5th in the league in frequency of attempts allowed at the rim, then on the rare occasion that teams do get there they shoot a middling 65.7 percent.
The Bulls do a great job with their point of attack defense on the perimeter, then have solid help and sound rotations to typically thwart a drive. They also have natural rim protectors and guys who can do so from help, as well as Holiday who's adept at blocking shots from behind as a trailer.
Defending the Corner three-pointers
Allowing just a 36.3% clip which ranks 6th best in the league, they take away one of the most sought-after shots from offenses, consistently.
Having multiple players who can cover ground quickly on closeouts and have the wingspan necessary to contest release points with great frequency is why they're so good there.
The Bucks take away the rim, and they take away the corner three. Two entities of offense that teams mostly want.
Weaknesses:
The Bucks invite 3s often, to the point of nearly conceding them, particularly they do this with shots of the “above the break” variety, ranking 30th in the NBA in frequency of attempts from deep allowed.
That's about it. Littered with above average, solid, and elite defenders, the Bucks feature elite versatility, plenty of game-planing tactically and discipline across the board to defend effectively. Milwaukee is tough for anyone.
Here’s a look at some key strengths and weaknesses for the Bulls.
Strengths:
Chicago ranks 4th in efficiency from the mid-range (44.7%), 3rd in corner three-point shooting (41.6%), and 4th in overall accuracy from deep (37.6%).
Weaknesses:
The Bulls are dead last in frequency of attempts from deep and above the break.
See the trend? The spots, defensively, where the Bucks emphasize taking away effectiveness are, in turn, spots where the Bulls are most effective shooting.
The mid-range, however, is an area of the floor the Bulls can live in, but they've only had one player be truly effective there — he'll need a career-best showing (and then some) to keep this team truly competitive in this series.
What to watch for:
Let's start with defense. The Bulls have had the 29th ranked defense in the NBA since the New Year, the 20th since the All-Star Break.
Wallowing so far in the back half of the Association defensively has to be accounted for with marked improvement in the team’s connectivity, communication, and accountability.
At times, the Bulls show that they are more than capable of doing these things, like in this instance against excellent ball movement:
Excellent job from Nikola Vucevic here not conceding the strong corner, even better help from DeMar DeRozan as the low man to force the skip, who's then covered up on a solid closeout from Ayo Dosunmu, allowing DeRozan to then “x-out” on the swapping of responsibilities on the weak-side of the action.
Crisp, timely, and under control, the Bulls are effective on their closeouts against great ball movement too.
Then here:
This is the variant of Chicago’s defensive scheme against a roller.
Vucevic (out of his typical drop and up at the level of the screen) helps put two on the ball with Dosunmu who's fighting over. DeRozan does a solid job “tagging” the roller with contact to eliminate that pass, forcing a skip to the weak-side.
Great job from Coby White being alert and timely with his reaction as he splits the difference weak-side from the elbow, followed by another “x-out” as DeRozan closes out, and a turnover in rim protection as Vucevic cleans it up.
These are the rotations the Bulls have deployed consistently. Now, at times, it's gotten sloppy on the communication needed for this scheme to be effective, or guys have been sloppy on the closeouts and are allowing rim pressure. If the efforts are consistent as above, and they keep their hands active, this gives them the best chance they can ask for, to then do what they do best in scoring the ball on the other end.
New to the playoffs spotlight (along with LaVine and White), Patrick Williams will be tasked with one of the league’s toughest match-ups in guarding two-time MVP and reigning Finals MVP, Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Williams has had some solid moments guarding Giannis recently:
More consistency would make these moments stand out even more. The little things that Alex Caruso has done recently — like picking Giannis up early in a possession past half-court to stagnate his progression down the floor, being physical with him before his catches in the post and making him fight through contact on the way to setting ball screens — will all be needed.
Caruso's spent 7:55 seconds of game time on Giannis, this is also mixed in with partial possessions where switches occur, but Giannis is 3-for-6 with 8 points and 9 assists in that time.
Being physical and sending a message through that physicality could pay dividends as it's the only true option in how to “defend” such a physically gifted player like Giannis effectively.
Also, the Bulls defense at the point of attack between Caruso, Dosunmu and Javonte Green, has to be sharp in containing the ball. It's one thing for Giannis to go off considering the many ways he scores, it's another if/when the likes of Holiday, Middleton and [insert any other Milwaukee guard] gets going downhill, putting stress on the rim and forcing rotations simultaneously.
That's how the likes of Portis and Brook Lopez get clean looks from deep that hit like daggers to the chest in the waning minutes of games.
The front court of Vucevic and Thompson (with help from Williams, Caruso and Dosunmu) must be strong on the glass. The Bulls lost the rebound battle by an average of 9.8 rebounds a game vs the Bucks this season, even giving up 9 offensive rebounds, 14.5 second chance points, and 51.4 points in the paint. These numbers are not conducive to winning efforts. The named players getting their backsides into Bucks and give true box-outs will be a big-time thing to watch. If they can neutralize the glass, they can give themselves a chance.
Finally, from the defensive side, in the clutch, the Bucks run a 3-man set from the middle of the floor typically (with any two shooters deep in the corners), where Giannis sets a middle pin-down for Middleton with Holiday initiating at the top of the key.
From that, they have three separate options where:
1.) The pin-down turns into a double screen from the middle of the floor for Holiday, who can either pull up, or dump it down to Giannis on the block
2.) Middleton receives the middle pin-down, then catches in the slot, with an ensuing double screen from Holiday and Antetokounmpo. Holiday rolls to a dunker’s spot, then Giannis delays his roll, then follows in a similar channel to the basket.
3.) The middle pin-down for Middleton has him flow to the slot, then the set turns into an elbow entry pass from Holiday to Antetokounmpo. From there, Giannis has free reign to give a hand-off back to Holiday, he can fake that and go isolation from triple threat, or have Middleton flow over for a dribble hand-off then isolate after that too. It's all-encompassing with multiple variations out of the same set.
If the presumed match-ups go with Williams on Antetokounmpo, then Dosunmu and Caruso on Middleton and Holiday, Billy Donovan will need to have multiple coverages deployed to muck that set up some. Whether they switch one-time, then have the middle man in the double-screen action hedge up to stagnate the sets flow, or even decide to trap with the middle man and the trailer, allowing Williams to play two guys in space in the middle of the floor, there. Point being is, what's needed is randomness and variety, not giving them a steady diet of the same look in this specific action over and over (which also is relevant to the defensive looks as a whole).
Offensively
The Bulls have a habit of rendering themselves rather predictable in their attack. Most of their sets are mundane and teams can jump their plays, forcing more and more (and more) DeRozan or LaVine isolations.
Most of the Bulls’ sets flow into that action anyway, yes, but there should be a concerted effort in them running their sets hard and giving opposing help defenses something else to occupy their attention while a strong side action occurs.
Here's an optical template for how the Bulls have fared offensively against Milwaukee:
Not pretty. Chicago averaged 101.5 points on 43.1% from the field and 30% from deep.
Dark horse MVP candidate DeRozan will need to be as sharp as ever with the plethora of match-ups and schemes Budenholzer is sure to deploy, specifically for him. The Bucks have an elite compilation of versatile and viable veterans on that end, and DeRozan's surely in their collective cross hairs.
Second-side Bulls offensive players need to remain alert at all times and utilize their abilities to cut to the rim. Those cuts, and even flashes into open space all act as movement that can force defensive rotations, and take attention away from DeRozan or even LaVine.
Nikola Vucevic, who I've spent the entire season singing from the heavens on for this specifically, is their offensive connector. As a connector, and even independent of that, he's one of the best decision-making front-court players in the NBA. Even more, he has a “passing catalog” that allows him to consistently pick apart advantageous scenarios from the short-roll and middle of the floor. This is a dynamic that should be often-visited, as Vooch, as a screener, should be able to have a field day whenever his man leaves him to trap the ball.
If I were the Bulls, at some point I would experiment also with setting their ball screens higher up than normal, distancing the trap from the basket, to allow even more space underneath to play with and get Vucevic going downhill in 4-on-3 scenarios behind the trap. Should the Bucks not trap on those, it's to the Bulls favor with DeRozan then getting downhill with a head of steam.
Past that, with the strong help defense the Bucks deploy, the Bulls have to take more of an advantage of their empty corner and empty side actions in dribble hand-offs as well as empty pick and roll. These sets allow for a two man game to work in space without worrying about the help.
A lot of times, when the empty action occurred, the Bucks would still put two on DeRozan or LaVine when coming off the screen, to which Vucevic was wide open in those pockets in the mid-range and eventually met by Giannis who is essentially in no responsibility outside of taking the first pass out of the roll. These scenarios are where the Bulls must use their cutting and flashing as, on the second-side, it's two Bucks tasked with guarding three Bulls.
Rip screens, cuts to open passing windows, and flashes to the elbow followed by ensuing cuts or screens should all be in play to make the defense pay.
In all, there's plenty of chess that will be played on a possession-by-possession basis, but the Bulls have to be more nuanced in their approach as the Bucks will weigh down on an offense that lacks both ball and player movement.
Coby White will need to have the run of shooting of his career this series.
White shot 27.5% from the field and 19.2% from deep against the Bucks this season. I expect for Dosunmu and Williams to start, meaning White will be the primary piece depended upon for scoring off the bench.
I've spoken (and written) ad nauseum about how Coby's unpredictability as a ball handler is a dynamic that he must cultivate into a consistent advantage. He has a shifty handle, with crafty and deceptive stop-and-go-ability, and a quick trigger on the pull up with an array of soft touch finishing skill near the rim.
Whether he's going in transition, isolation, attacking closeouts, or (what I've hoped for most) in coming off more picks and off-ball screens, coach Billy Donovan must make it a point of emphasis to get Coby involved early and often when he's on the floor.
Coby has a propensity for pyrotechnic-like scoring outbursts where he could go for 20 in a quarter with plenty left to spare, or even almost single-handedly carry the Bulls offense for stretches with that wildcard nature of his role with the Bulls.
They need his threat and ability to shoot and score in the worst way, as the only other shooters that will attract relevant attention from deep will be Vucevic (who we'll get to next), and LaVine beyond the arc.
Giving Coby the key to fully embrace his nature as a scoring guard, doing away with trying to play mistake-free ball, could go a long way for him, and them as a collective.
It's for the aforementioned reasons that he is one of the Bulls x-factors in this series.
Nikola Vucevic averaged 16 points on 42.2/40.9/80 shooting against the Bucks.
That's simply not enough, not in volume or efficiency. To truly be of help, Vooch needs to be north of the 20-point threshold in every game along with DeRozan and LaVine.
The Bucks mostly play a drop coverage whenever Giannis is at center (though his drop is atypical as he's crazy active and can always switch up his approach), as well as whenever Brook Lopez is on the floor. In that, they're conceding the “pop” out of pick and roll, from one of Vucevic's.
Vucevic shot just 32% above the break this season. That's atypical for him however, and one of the aptest of times for him to rediscover his touch and feel for that shot would be now. As having him, in addition to Coby, knocking down shots from deep (specifically above the break) could be enough to tilt the scale in any given game, giving themselves a chance at the end.
The Bulls will also need an aggressive Williams offensively. If he can display even 70% of the exhibition he put on to end the regular season against Minnesota, that would be a newfound dynamic and pressure point that's not on the scouting report for the Bucks.
I've spoken in-depth about Williams’ multiple dribble, rhythm pull ups and how his attacking of closeouts on those and generating rim pressure are essential.
The Bulls will need him to be viable in challenging Vucevic (and hopefully even White) for third leading scorer on a per game basis.
Also, Williams’ play making from those same scenarios, which was also on display in the Minnesota game for the regular season finale, can prove valuable in the Bulls creation independent of either of their three best players.
Closing Thoughts
Now, the Bulls could get all of what I mentioned and, based on their lacking depth and experience in comparison to one of the best assemblages of talent in the NBA, it could end up not mattering at all to the final results. The Bucks are simply that great, not to mention they're now geared up to defend a championship.
However, I feel that even if these next seven games don't result in a series win for the Bulls, a viable showing to cap off a mostly positive first season in this rendition would stamp 2021-22 as a success while also making plans of attack in the off-season much less dramatic.
The Bulls deserve the opportunity they've presented themselves with, now is a time for them to solidify themselves as threats in the East for years to come.
Prediction
Bucks in 5
The Bulls won't be blown out in these game, and games will simply come down to execution in key moments while one of the two sees a run. The Bulls will steal either Game 1 in Wisconsin — or garner a win in-front of a packed home crowd as the “Madhouse on Madison” is sure to remind both the league and the Bucks why that is it's name.